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Tomorrow", "stage": "bottleneck", "available": true, "heat": 0, "label": "COLD", "rs_w": -0.08019761651749184, "rs_m": -0.15131129812685462, "breadth": 0, "spark": [ 1, 0.9118, 0.9033, 0.8703, 0.8747, 0.9595, 0.8975, 0.8675, 0.8284, 0.857, 0.8412, 0.8131, 0.8189, 0.7889, 0.7673, 0.7922, 0.881, 0.9135, 0.9055, 0.8992, 0.8756, 0.8328, 0.8248, 0.8052, 0.7908, 0.7746, 0.784, 0.7671, 0.718, 0.7332 ], "movers": [ { "t": "VSAT", "d": 0.0148, "w": -0.0283, "m": 0.1074 }, { "t": "GSAT", "d": -0.0168, "w": -0.0114, "m": -0.0104 }, { "t": "IRDM", "d": -0.0409, "w": -0.0675, "m": 0.0362 } ], "n": 9, "n_total": 10, "color_index": 23 } ], "bench": { "spy_w": -0.0154, "spy_m": 0.0031, "universe": 117 }, "regime": { "score": 1.27, "verdict": "CALM" }, "equity_stance": { "label": "risk-on", "signals_known": 3, "signals_bull": 3, "signals_bear": 0, "above_200": true, "sma200_rising": true, "pct_above_200": 0.0669, "ret_12m": 0.1844, "trend_vote": "bullish", "momentum_vote": "bullish", "credit_vote": "bullish", "credit_state": "stable", "credit_hyg_vs_lqd_20d": 0.0101, "trend_detail": "+6.7% vs rising 200-session average", "credit_detail": "HY vs IG stable or firm over 20 sessions" }, "market_desk": { "headline": "Risk-on trend; speculation calm; leadership narrow", "dek": "Equity stance from multi-signal trend, 12-month return, and credit — not a recession call.", "where": { "question": "Where are we?", "answer": "Uptrend, not a bottom", "detail": "+6.7% vs rising 200-session average · 12m +18.4% · HY vs IG stable or firm over 20 sessions" }, "stretched": { "question": "How stretched?", "answer": "Extended, not extreme", "detail": "+6.7% above the 200-session average" }, "posture": { "question": "Theme posture?", "answer": "Selective, not all-in", "detail": "Narrow leadership · hold strength · don't chase pure laggards" }, "breadth_note": { "question": "Equal-weight breadth?", "answer": "Broadening", "detail": "RSP +2.1% vs SPY +0.3% over 20 sessions" }, "laggard_note": { "question": "Theme diffusion?", "answer": "No qualifying laggard", "detail": "Need a below-median heat theme with positive 5-session RS beating its 20-session RS" }, "crowding_note": { "question": "Crowding?", "answer": "Caution — narrow leadership", "detail": "Top themes dominate while breadth is not broad (100 concentration, 21% above trend)" } }, "stance_record": { "status": "collecting", "total_observations": 3, "min_n": 30, "by_label": [ { "label": "risk-on", "n": 3 } ], "horizons": null, "lab_gate": "collecting", "lab_gate_why": "need n≥30 graded risk-on 1m SPY outcomes", "observations": [ { "date": "2026-07-15", "label": "risk-on" }, { "date": "2026-07-16", "label": "risk-on" }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "label": "risk-on" } ] }, "stance_observations": [ { "date": "2026-07-15", "label": "risk-on" }, { "date": "2026-07-16", "label": "risk-on" }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "label": "risk-on" } ] }